HLMEX – Q4 2017 Commentary

HLMEX – Q4 2017 Commentary

The Harding Loevner Emerging Markets fund lagged its benchmark during the fourth quarter, but still returned nearly 37% for 2017. The slight underperformance was driven by a relative underweight to China and an underweight to energy companies. The team builds a geographically diversified portfolio based on industry stock selection rather than country.

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Exxon 4Q17 earnings results disappoint but no change in long term thesis

Exxon released 4Q17 earnings and cash flow below consensus expectations, driving the stock lower today. In addition, investors were expecting a share buyback announcement that did not materialize. The next catalyst for the stock is its March’s analyst day where a more detailed capital allocation plan will be released. We are maintaining our position size and price target. Continue reading “Exxon 4Q17 earnings results disappoint but no change in long term thesis”

Sensata 4Q17 earnings results: thesis is playing out, we still see some upside going forward

Sensata (ST) reported 4Q17 organic sales +5.2% and adjusted EPS +14.5%. For 2017, organic sales growth was 4%, and adjusted EBIT margin expanded by 100bps. 2017 was a strong year of new design wins for Sensata, leading the way to another year of growth. The company is performing in line with our expectations regarding margin improvement and deleveraging, paving the way for more M&A in the future. We are maintaining our price target and position size. Continue reading “Sensata 4Q17 earnings results: thesis is playing out, we still see some upside going forward”

Healthcare comments related to Amazon/JP Morgan/Berkshire news

• My view is that it won’t have an impact near term to CVS, but longer term it could be disruptive. I think it will give them a bigger negotiating power over health insurance costs.
• This is not the first time large companies try to form an alliance to resolve this high healthcare cost issue: the Health Transformation Alliance, a group of 40+ large employers, covering 6 million lives, was formed to reduce costs (http://www.htahealth.com/). The group was looking to partner with CVS & Optum to reduce costs.
• Just a reminder that CVS has a higher share of the Medicare Part D scripts, representing 30% of CVS PBM scripts (according to Morgan Stanley), which is more profitable and not targeted by the AMZN/JPM/Berkshire JV. CVS’s Silverscript subsidiary is the #1 PDP insurance company by enrollment with 5.5 million lives as of January 1, 2017, accounting for 22% of total Part D lives. Continue reading “Healthcare comments related to Amazon/JP Morgan/Berkshire news”

Stryker 4Q2017 earnings results were good, guidance for 2018 disappoints the market but in line with our expectations

Stryker reported strong 4Q 2017 organic sales of +8.1% and EPS +10%, and full year 2017 organic sales of +7.1% (above its latest guidance) and EPS growth of +12%. The stock is consolidating after market on lower 2018 guidance vs consensus, but as a reminder the stock was up ~9% year-to-date, and the management team tends to guide conservatively. We think 2018 guidance to be very decent at +6-6.5% which is better than medtech peers. Overall Stryker continues to perform well and we raise our price target to $188. Continue reading “Stryker 4Q2017 earnings results were good, guidance for 2018 disappoints the market but in line with our expectations”