Hi,
Emerging markets are in a bear market. Since their peak on 1/26/18, emerging market index is down 20% in price.
EM have faced several headwinds:
· Reduced global liquidity / Rising US rates / Rising US Dollar
· Trade tariffs
· Higher energy prices
Attached is a good FT article providing some perspective.
We have been underweight EM stocks with ~4% in growth portfolios. Does this drop present a buying opportunity???
As the attached article argues, the opportunity depends on the severity of China’s current slowdown as China has been slowing credit growth. Historically, differenciating financial crisis into short-lived ones versus long-lived ones depends on debt. If debt needs to be restructred or forgiven, the recovery period is a long one as the costs of the debt needs to be allocated. We are closely watching to see if economic growth continues to slows in China or if China has to restructure their debts. China is a highly indebted nation with over 300% debt to GDP. Recently, China has slowed credit growth in their shadow banking network, which has been painful. There have been many news articles of investment companies going bankrupt and investors losing all of their investment. China has had periods of credit tightening in the past which have been followed by periods of stimulus. Signs indicate that we are still in the tightening phase.
Thanks,
John
John R. Ingram CFA
Managing Director
Asset Allocation and Research
Direct: 617.226.0021
Fax: 617.523.8118
Crestwood Advisors
One Liberty Square
Suite 500
Boston, MA 02109
Shaky emerging markets watch the US and China _ Financial Times.pdf