Hi,
Goldman Sachs published a good article today on trade and tariffs. Many of the article’s points parallel the points in our recent Perspective “Tariff Man”.
- Base case -0.5 in GDP, with all threatened tariffs at -1.3% GDP
- Concern that Huawei ban has solidified nationalist resentment against US
- Tariff skirmishes has turned to a trade war
The article adds a lot of detail on other implications of trade war, one of which is higher prices. They are expecting +.2% base case and up to +1.2% in PCE increase given all threats.
Thanks,
John