We are selling Pepsi (PEP) out of Focused Equity. Partial proceeds to go into HLT (1.5%) and remaining funds into IVV.
The initial Pepsi buy thesis was:
- Global growth opportunity with about 40% of profits coming from outside the US. CSD is only 25% of sales (and Pepsi brand only 12%)
- Strong market share in high growth emerging markets where there is low penetration and rising per capita consumption
- Resilient snack business provides pricing power and visibility to future cash flows (more than half of sales are from snacks not beverages). CSD is only 25% of sales (and Pepsi brand only 12%)
- Several Great brands driving global growth: Frito Lay, Quaker, Gatorade
- Strong balance sheet and cash flows support a solid dividend yield and share buyback program
Where our opinion changed: while we don’t think there is any material problems with their business, there are multiple data points that lead us to think Pepsi could continue to underperform this year:
- Due to covid, snacking on the go and soft drinks consumption on-premise has been impacted, which we think could continue post-covid due to persisting adoption of working from home. A reminder that individually/on-the-go snacks and beverages are higher margin items – we could see margins being challenged this year.
- Free Cash Flows expected flat due to reinvestments in the company (possibly over next 2 years) – not in consensus numbers
- Leverage has increased in the last four years, which calls for debt reduction instead of share repurchase
- Expectation for 2021 is high with almost 7% top line growth expected & higher FCF
- Pepsi’s valuation is not attractive: low FCF yield, forward P/E is above average (although less so since the recent sell-off) but we see additional risks from high sell-side expectations
BUY thesis on HLT:
- Strong moat driven by network effect of leading hotel brand, global scale and loyalty membership
- Asset-light, fee-based model leads to capital efficient growth which should drive valuation multiple over time.
- Pipeline growth supported by superior economics of brand affiliation and a fragmented and underpenetrated global hotel industry.
- Margin expansion as cost cutting from pandemic remains post recovery.
- Capital allocation: improving free cash flow production should be returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
- Post-pandemic positioning: with pipeline growth and margin expansion, EBITDA will recover much faster than RevPAR
- Early signs of travel improvement with vaccine rollout. Pent-up demand in leisure, corporate and group travel should continue to drive improving trends.