Schwab (SCHW) Q2 Results

On 7/22, Schwab hosted their summer update detailing quarterly earnings.  Schwab continues to attract a wide range of retail investors, which spurred organic growth up 8% or $109B for the quarter.  Quarter over quarter, revenue for the quarter fell -4% as trading revenue fell -21% after Q1’s surge.

  • Strong organic growth of 8% – Schwab has had higher net new asset growth in the first half of this year than any prior full year’s growth!
  • 45% adj pretax margin

 

Current Price: $68.1                         Price Target: $78

Position Size:   2.19%                       Performance TTM: 105%

 

Schwab is building scale and platform as premier asset gather. 

  • Transfer ratio of 3 to 1, means that 3x the assets came to Schwab from competitors than left Schwab
  • Schwab recorded 4,810 new brokerage accounts in the first half of this year 
  • Schwab is succeeding with millennials.  70% of new-to-firm households were under the age of 40.

Expenses

  • Total expenses up +1% QOQ due to $200m charge for reserve for potential find on robo advisor disclosures.
  • Through merger with TD Ameritrade, SCHW expects $1.8b-$2.0b in expense savings over next 3 years, which equates to ~20% of total expenses.

 

Net interest revenue was up +2%

  • Net interest margin of 1.46% down slightly from 1.48%
  • Deposits were $368b down -$1b as clients invested cash into equities and bonds
  • Strong growth in margin lending +38% YOY
  • Schwab’s revenue remains sensitive to interest rate changes
  • Starting in Q3 Schwab is converting over TD Ameritrade cash accounts which will aid growth to deposits by about $10b per month.

 

Profitability – industry leader

  • ROTCE of 20% and pre-tax profit margin of 44.6%.  Expect margins to continue to expand over the next 2-3 years due to cost savings and scale from the mergers

Capital allocation

  • Schwab plans to build capital on the balance sheet due to rising deposits and mergers, which may temper share buybacks.
  • Dividend yield of 1.05%

 

Schwab Thesis:

 

  • Expect Schwab’s vertically integrated business model to drive AUM growth.  Schwab has averaged 6% organic core net new asset growth as retail clients and advisors are attracted to Schwab’s low-cost trading and custody services.
  • Conservative, well-managed firm who is a leader in online trading and focused on leveraging platform. 
  • Schwab has experience material AUM growth with USAA and TD Ameritrade mergers.  Expect SCHW to reduce costs and continue to leverage platform.

 

Please let me know if you have any questions.

Thanks,

John

 

[category Equity Earnings]

$SCHW.US

 

 

John R. Ingram CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Partner

 

Direct: 617.226.0021

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com