Current Price: $46.4 Price Target: $50 (raised from $40)
Position Size: 2.62% Trailing 12-month Performance: 96%
Highlights:
- Revenue growth of 12% to $22.8b
- Deposits continued their strong growth – 15% YOY
- Strong metrics for loan quality throughout pandemic. BAC had a loss ratio of 20 basis points the lowest in 50 years.
- Over $26b of excess capital – returned $12b to shareholders in Q3.
- Good expense control with noninterest expenses down 4% QOQ
- Loan growth turned positive, growing 6% QOQ. In prior quarters, loan growth was negative due to high levels of mortgage refinancing.
- Net Interest Margin (NIM) rose to 1.93% from 1.83%, but remains depressed due to low interest rates.
- Deposits have grown 14% YOY
- BAC ranked #1 in deposit share
- Fiscal stimulus programs have supported consumers
- BAC pays just .03% on deposits
- BAC has managed the pandemic well with strong credit performance.
- Net charge-offs only 0.20% of loans, which is a 50-year low. Last year this ratio peaked at 0.45%. For comparison during 2010, the charge-off ratio peaked at 3.8% showing the relative severity of the Great Recession and the current strength of the U.S. banking system.
- Excess capital
- In Q2, BAC announce a $25b share repurchase program which is worth 7.5% of outstanding shares.
- Returned $11.6b to shareholders with $9.9b in share repurchases. Dividend yield is 1.80% and shareholder yield is above 10%
BAC Thesis:
- Over the years BAC has dramatically improved their Consumer Banking unit, leveraging technology and digital platforms which has improved margins and driven earning’s growth.
- BAC has a high-quality loan book which was seen during the pandemic as loan loss metrics were best among peers
- BAC has strong earnings power, generating over $5b a quarter in earnings
- BAC continues to generate excess capital which should lead to increased dividends and continued share buybacks
- BAC’s earnings are sensitive to rate increases.
Please let me know if you have questions.
Thanks,
John
[category Equity Earnings]
[tag BAC]
$BAC.US
John R. Ingram CFA
Chief Investment Officer
Partner
Direct: 617.226.0021
Fax: 617.523.8118
Crestwood Advisors
One Liberty Square
Suite 500
Boston, MA 02109