Alphabet’s Delivery by Drone Surge to Stay-at-Home Customers

Alphabet’s Wing unit is seeing a dramatic increase in the number of customers using its drone delivery service in rural Virginia during the Covid-19 pandemic. Wing, began routine deliveries under a test program approved by the federal government last October, and has added new vendors and expanded items customers can order to better serve people during the epidemic. Deliveries have more than doubled in Virginia. In addition to partnerships with FedEx and Walgreens, Wing recently began deliveries from places like bakeries and a coffee shops. While the payload of Wing’s autonomous drones is limited, orders are fulfilled within minutes. Wing seems to be well ahead of everyone else in drone delivery. Interesting article below from January, but here’s an excerpt…

 

more than six years after Bezos showed off the concept during an episode of 60 Minutes, Amazon deliveries remain frustratingly grounded. Wing, meanwhile, is surging forward — or, rather, upward. With over 5,000 deliveries direct to customers, it’s delivering on its promises, and then some. So long as you live in one of several select locations, that is.

 

“We’ve done over 80,000 flights with our current iteration of drone,” Dennett continued. “We’ve done that across three continents, with operations in Australia, Finland, and the U.S.”

 

Wing is currently operating in Australia’s cities of Canberra and Logan; Helsinki in Finland; and, in the United States, in the 21,000-person town of Christiansburg, Virginia. By partnering with assorted other businesses, it’s carried out proof-of-concept deliveries for everything from donuts and artisanal cheeses to Walgreens groceries and FedEx packages.

 

The most exciting development of all, however, is one that, on paper, sounds like little more than fine print: Wing has received an Expanded Air Carrier Certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). “We’re the first drone company in the United States to be a certified air carrier,” Dennett explained. “That means that we’re able to take money in return for providing our services because we’ve demonstrated such a level of safety.”

 

 

When it comes to delivery drones, Google’s Wing is miles above the competition

By Luke Dormehl

Digital Trends

January 27, 2020

 

Google famously laid out its mission as organizing “the world’s information [to] make it universally accessible and useful.” The search giant’s algorithms kneaded the web’s doughy data and metadata until it no longer resembled the lumpy experience of using the internet in the bad old days of Yahoo and Ask Jeeves, but rather a new streamlined, smoother surfing experience built for maximum effectiveness. Today hosting 5.6 billion searches per day, Google has been overwhelmingly successful at its job.

 

Now Alphabet, the parent company to which Google is but one part, wants to do the same thing with drone deliveries. But in a real-world of, well, brick and mortar buildings, weather systems, and FAA regulations, can its drone delivery subsidiary Wing hope to be as transformative as Google was in the world of search?

 

In short, can it succeed at making drone deliveries both universally accessible and useful?

 

A drone delivery system that works

Unlike most Google stories, Wing begins with a failure parable. Kind of. In 2012, the team behind Wing (it grew out of X Development, Alphabet’s “seriously-we-can-do-that-now?” moonshot initiative) showed off their initial prototype vertical landing and takeoff vehicle. This was capable not only of flying from one location to another, but also of hovering and winching packages up and down from the ground using a retractable tether. Wing immediately aimed for the most headline-grabbing, life-altering use-case possible: delivering defibrillators to people having heart attacks. As Apple is currently finding with the heart-rate tracking feature on the Apple Watch, few technology demonstrations generate more positive headlines than ones that involve saving lives. But it wasn’t to be.

 

“In the process of [exploring this idea] we realized that the drone technology wasn’t yet far enough along to be used as a reliable deliverer for that kind of urgent use-case,” Alexa Dennett, Head of Marketing and Communications for Wing’s Regions, told Digital Trends. “We spent the next seven-plus years, through today, trying to build an energy efficient, fast, reliable, and safe drone delivery system [that works].”

 

Here in 2020, companies promising drone deliveries are a whole lot like sex in high school. Everyone says they’re doing it, but hardly anyone actually is. Readers will be familiar with proclamations like Jeff Bezos’ announcement of Amazon Prime Air, the one-click dream of achieving autonomous drone deliveries to Amazon customers within 30 minutes of ordering. But more than six years after Bezos showed off the concept during an episode of 60 Minutes, Amazon deliveries remain frustratingly grounded. Wing, meanwhile, is surging forward — or, rather, upward. With over 5,000 deliveries direct to customers, it’s delivering on its promises, and then some. So long as you live in one of several select locations, that is.

 

“We’ve done over 80,000 flights with our current iteration of drone,” Dennett continued. “We’ve done that across three continents, with operations in Australia, Finland, and the U.S.”

 

Wing is currently operating in Australia’s cities of Canberra and Logan; Helsinki in Finland; and, in the United States, in the 21,000-person town of Christiansburg, Virginia. By partnering with assorted other businesses, it’s carried out proof-of-concept deliveries for everything from donuts and artisanal cheeses to Walgreens groceries and FedEx packages.

 

The most exciting development of all, however, is one that, on paper, sounds like little more than fine print: Wing has received an Expanded Air Carrier Certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). “We’re the first drone company in the United States to be a certified air carrier,” Dennett explained. “That means that we’re able to take money in return for providing our services because we’ve demonstrated such a level of safety.”

 

Bringing it to the masses

 

Alongside the ability to fly legally beyond the drone operator’s line of sight, this suddenly makes autonomous drone deliveries seem a lot more viable. This doesn’t just benefit Wing, either. It also makes the technology available to a whole lot more customers; ones that don’t necessarily have the resources of a Silicon Valley tech giant to consider implementing their own drone delivery systems.

 

“What I see as the most unique and differentiating thing about our drone is that really what we’re trying to do is empower everyone to access drone delivery,” Dennett said. “What I mean by that is that we’re building a system that allows drones to pick up and deliver to anywhere. The awesome thing is that, let’s say you’re a local coffee store, you could potentially work with Wing to have your coffee delivered to customers who would normally not walk past your store.”

 

From the perspective of a Wing partner, the idea is theoretically straightforward. You partner with the company, a bit like an independent developer hitching its wagon to Apple’s App Store star. Customers then get to order your products, you pack up the boxes when an order comes in, head outside to wait for Wing’s drone to whisk off your products, and Wing takes care of the rest. For a fee, of course.

 

“When that button is pushed [by a customer], our merchants are told ‘put [the item] in a box,’” Dennett said. “Our drone is then given instructions to take off. The route is planned by our unmanned traffic management system to be the safest, most efficient route. The package is loaded on by the merchant, and the drone flies completely autonomously to the person who has ordered it. The drone then hovers at about seven meters above the ground. It lowers a string, unhooks the package, winds up the string, and flies away to its charge pad to get ready for its next order.”

 

As simple as that, right? “[X Development]’s mission is to basically create businesses that will have an impact on hundreds of millions of people,” Dennett explained. “But will also, as a corollary, have the potential to generate large returns. From Wing’s perspective, we believe that we fall into that bucket.”

 

Delivering the undeliverable

The smart play — and the reason why drone deliveries are so exciting for companies — is because it makes it possible to deliver things that have never been delivered. For years, companies have delivered large items to customers. A new fridge or couch is a big-ticket item that’s impractical to transport on your own, and probably isn’t needed right this instant. Since then, the bar for the kind of things we’ll order for delivery has lowered as the speed of transportation has increased. Six weeks’ wait for a couch is acceptable. Six weeks’ wait for your fresh groceries is less so. One or two days for a book from Amazon is probably easier than driving downtown, parking, and going to a bookstore. One or two days’ wait for a cup of coffee is wildly impractical.

 

 

“In Australia, we’ve got a coffee provider called Kickstart Expresso,” said Dennett. “We’ve got an ice cream company called Pure Gelato. Both of those industries are, historically… you’re not going to deliver ice cream by a car, right? Because it’s melted by the time it’s delivered. And you’re not going to deliver an espresso-based coffee by car because it’s going to be lukewarm by the time it reaches the customer. But thanks to Wing, people can get deliveries to their door in a handful of minutes. That means ice cream that’s still frozen on a hot day when it’s delivered to your yard. Same with coffee, which is still piping hot. For these kind of businesses, drones are facilitating a whole new type of delivery that’s a new way of serving their customers.”

 

To put it another way, Wing — and drone delivery companies like it — hope to make deliverable whole new categories of goods that wouldn’t previously have been. Dennett would not share the exact price point at which it makes sense for a company to offer drone delivery (does ice cream by drone make sense or does it smack of dot-com bubble insanity?). However, she is confident that Wing’s business model is built with scalability in mind.

 

“You don’t need to have a delivery driver who then gets stuck in traffic,” she said. “It’s a point-to-point system flying in the sky where there is no traffic. We’re very confident that it will be significantly more cost effective for businesses to use this delivery service.”

 

Where we’re going…

There are challenges, of course. As noted, plenty of other companies are jumping into the drone delivery space. There are also ground-based delivery services like Starship Technologies, which offer sidewalk-based delivery bots that aim to achieve much the same thing.

 

Elsewhere, questions remain about things like the level of noise pollution drone deliveries will create. During Wing’s operations in Canberra, one complaint described the noise of its delivery drones as being like “a chain saw gone ballistic.” (Dennett said that Wing has made changes to its propellor and blade design, which has resulted in a “perceptible halving of the sound.”) Then there’s all the regulatory bodies, which will need to be convinced that drones are safe and efficient before they are given unanimous approval to operate everywhere.

 

But Wing, and others like it, have one big ace in the hole: our current method of transportation is, frankly, kind of broken. “There [has] to be a better way to transport things,” Dennett said. “Roads are incredibly congested. It seems absurd that you carry a two-pound package in a 2,000 pound car, with the carbon emissions associated with that kind of transportation.”

 

Drones, with their cavalier disregard for anything as mundane as ordinary streets, offer one sci-fi-sounding solution. As Dr. Emmett Brown tells Marty McFly at the end of Back to the Future, “Roads? Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.”

 

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

 

 

GOOGL.US

[tag GOOGL]

[category equity research]

 

 

Disney announced 50million subscribers

Disney just announced they have 50 million Disney+ subscribers. In Q1 they reported 26.5m subs vs consensus ~20m, which had increased to 28.6m subs as of the date of the earnings call in mid-Feb. They are tracking way ahead of expectations….the company projected 60 million to 90 million Disney+ subscribers by 2024 w/ 20-30m in the US and 40-60m international. In the past two weeks, Disney+ rolled out in 8 Western European counties including the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria, and Switzerland. Additionally, Disney+ became available last week in India, where it is offered in conjunction with the existing Hotstar service, and already accounts for approximately 8 million of Disney+’s 50 million paid subscribers. The service is expanding throughout Western Europe and into Japan and all of Latin America later this year.

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

DIS.US

[tag DIS]

[category equity research]

 

Update on BKNG

Booking filed an 8K this morning giving some updates on their business. Overall, no reason for additional concern – I think this is consistent with expectations and the stock is up 2% this morning. They indicated room night reservations (excluding the impact of cancelations) in recent days have decreased by over 85% as compared to the comparable period in 2019. This is consistent with reports by hotel operators of occupancy in the single digits. They also said they expect Q2 ending June 30 to be materially worse than Q1 given the timing of the virus outbreak. Booking also announced a debt offering and some changes to their debt covenants which should prevent them from potentially tripping a covenant. Specifically, they replaced a leverage ratio covenant with a liquidity covenant which requires them to have a certain amount of cash on hand. Additionally, they gave some insight into their liquidity situation. Basically they said prior to their current debt offering and without accessing their revolving credit facility ($2B) they believe if their current weakened business volumes persist indefinitely, their current liquidity will be sufficient through at least the end of 2021. If the situation worsens,  current liquidity will be sufficient at least until the second half of 2021. To put that in perspective, their business is very Europe focused and Europe is in lockdown, but cases in Spain and Italy seem to be levelling off. So a situation worse than now through mid-2021 seems unlikely. Moreover, this liquidity outlook does not incorporate their current debt offering or their $2B revolver that they can access. On March 24, 2020, Moody’s affirmed their A3 senior unsecured debt rating (this is in the middle of the investment grade credit ranking), but they did change the outlook to negative from stable.

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

BKNG.US

[tag BKNG]

[category equity research]

 

 

Updates on TJX

Couple updates on TJX. No change in long-term thesis. TJX announced a couple steps they need to take in the current environment to strengthen their balance sheet and preserve capital.

 

·         They suspended Q1 dividend – TJX indicated in their 10K that they do not intend to declare a dividend for the first quarter of fiscal 2021. They had already indicated they were “evaluating” their dividend about a week ago. This should be a temporary cut. Mgmt. said they remain committed to paying their dividends whenever the environment normalizes.

·         Debt offering – Today TJX filed for a $4B debt offering. This is an additional step in strengthening their financial position and balance sheet to maintain financial liquidity and flexibility.  

·         Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo both upgraded TJX to a buy today.

 

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

$TJX.US

[tag TJX]

[category equity research]

 

Update on Alphabet

 

·         Alphabet has not updated its guidance but others in the ad space have given negative warnings including Facebook (yesterday) and Twitter (Monday). Facebook said, “we’ve seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of COVID-19.” Twitter withdrew their guidance. Neither company issued a specific revision to their revenue projections.

·         Although people are spending more time online, with vast business closures many advertisers are temporarily curtailing ad spend. Promisingly, data from parts of Asia where the virus has diminished show a rebound in advertising as workplaces have begun to re-open. 

·         The travel industry is obviously one such industry that’s curtailing ad spend and travel is the 6th largest online ad category, at about $20B of online ad spending during 2019. At just Booking and Expedia, the two companies spend back a massive portion of their revenue on advertising. At Booking it’s ~33% or $5B and at Expedia it’s also ~$5B or 42% of revenue. The two companies spend a large portion of this with Google.

·         The travel industry accounts for an estimated $11B in ad spend at Google or ~10% of revenue.

·         While this will clearly be a hit to Alphabet’s revenue(which is almost entirely ad revenue) in the near term, their competitive position long-term is unchanged.

·         Regulatory risk could be on the back burner: the current environment is causing regulators in Europe to take a different tone with tech companies (at least for now). See link to FT article below. Maybe the US will as well, as it’s not the highest priority issue and tech companies, w/ their massive resources, have been demonstrating their ability to be a force for social good (like their subsidiary Verily’s coronavirus screening site). Not suggesting the regulatory risks are gone…but it’s possible they are delayed/changed.

·         Balance sheet strength: Alphabet has a huge cash hoard to ride through this time of uncertainty. They have no net debt and ~14% of their market cap in net cash.

 

Coronavirus prompts delays and overhaul of EU digital strategy

https://www.ft.com/content/f3fd4707-db62-4367-83b1-1b73f1b77862

 

Apple, Google and others partner with Ad Council and US govt to expand coronavirus messaging

https://www.thedrum.com/news/2020/03/25/apple-google-and-others-partner-with-ad-council-and-us-govt-expand-coronavirus

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

$GOOG.US

[tag GOOG]

[category equity research]

 

 

Update on Sherwin Williams

 

·         At the end of last week they re-affirmed their 1Q guidance for sales growth of 2% to 5%.

·         While they have experienced headwinds related to the coronavirus pandemic, it’s been primarily outside the U.S. Production operations in Asia are returning to pre-crisis levels. Across the US and Europe they have experienced minimal disruption to their supply chain and facility operations. At this time, the vast majority of their North American paint stores continue to operate and provide customers with multiple options for ordering and receiving product, including through their existing and extensive delivery system and store pick-up.

·         They have large customers involved in mission critical applications such as food and beverage packaging, health care equipment and facilities, military equipment and energy infrastructure.

·         The CEO said, “although near-term market conditions are likely to remain unpredictable, we believe our underlying long-term demand fundamentals remain intact.”

·         Sherwin stands to benefit from the recent decline in oil prices (about 43% of Sherwin’s raw material costs are tied to petrochemicals including resins, solvents and packaging) and lower interest rates which aid housing market fundamentals. Certain raw material prices have increased related to lower Chinese production but these make up a smaller % of their raw material basket and China seems to be returning to pre-crisis production. Raw materials are ~80% of the cost of a coatings product.

·         Valuation is not expensive at 5.5% TTM FCF.

·         Balance sheet:

o   Sherwin’s leverage ratio is 2.6x – their leverage ratio was elevated related to their Valspar acquisition. They have been working this down.

o   Their debt is rated BBB and has not seen a big price decline relative to issues of similar credit quality.

o   They have ~$400m in maturities this year which is manageable from their cash flow.

 

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

$SHW.US

[tag SHW]

[category equity research]

 

Accenture Q2 Earnings

Key Takeaways:

1.       They beat and issued re-assuring guidance. While guidance was lowered for next quarter and the full year due to impact from the coronavirus, they are not seeing a big impact. The street is only slightly ahead of the high end of full year guidance and lower travel re-imbursements (which are a pass through) are a 1pt headwind.

2.       They are positioned well in the current environment. Their business model is set up for them to shift seamlessly to a work-from-home and virtual collaboration environment and they are helping clients make this transition as well.

3.       Bookings  were  particularly  strong  signifying  solid  business  fundamentals prior to the coronavirus.

4.       Their scale will help them weather this and should lead to further share gains. Part of Accenture’s strategy and competitive advantage is to continue to innovate and invest to stay relevant. Given their scale and strong balance sheet, they are in a position to continue doing that…they plan to continuing making small acquisitions (which should be getting cheaper) though the remainder of the year and they plan to continue investing on training and upskilling employees.

 

Additional highlights:

·         2Q revenues were $11.1B (+8% YoY in CC) and operating margin of 13.4% (+10bps YoY). They saw growth in 12 of their 13 industry groups, with 5 growing double-digit…underscoring the benefit of diversified industry end markets. The one area of weakness that has been persisting for a bit is European financial services end markets. From a geographic perspective, US, “growth markets”, Germany, Ireland, Brazil, Japan all grew double digits. Europe overall was +2% and the UK declined.

·         They continue to take share growing more than 2x the market.

·         Record bookings of $14.2 billion for the quarter, a 1.3 book-to-bill (consulting 1.1 and outsourcing 1.4).

·         Guidance:

o   Lower travel reimbursements weighed on guidance. For the fees that are reimbursable to clients, this shows up in revenue but is just a pass through….i.e. zero margin. Less travel mean less revenue, but no economic impact.

o   For next quarter they expect constant currency revenue growth of -2% to +2%. For the full year they expect +3% to +6% revenue growth (vs +6-8% previously). Importantly, Q3 revenue is expected to see a 2pt hit from lower travel and full year a 1pt hit…thus accounting for half of their 2pts of FY lowered guidance.

o   Lower travel spend that is not reimbursable will be a benefit to Accenture’s full year margins. They are expecting at least 10bps of full year op margin expansion.

o   Within the FY20 revenue growth guidance, Consulting is expected to grow at low-to-mid single digits while Outsourcing is expected to grow at mid-to-high single digits. Their consulting business incurs higher travel fees.

o   In their full year guidance they are assuming some improvement by Q4 either because virus containment improves or, failing that, that clients become more accustomed to operating in a new environment which should help mitigate any project disruptions.

·         Valuation:

o   The stock is meaningfully undervalued trading at a 6% forward yield. They have an easily covered 2% dividend and no net debt.

o   They have $5.4B in cash on their balance sheet. The only debt they have on their balance sheet are capitalized leases, which were added this fiscal year due to an accounting change. Substantially all of their lease obligations are for office real estate. Based on last year’s 10K, annual operating lease commitments look to be <$700m.

o   Multiple underpinned by ACN being a best-in-class company with stable growth that’s buffered by geographic and end market diversity and long-standing client relationships (95 of their top 100 clients have been with them for >10 years).

·         Coronavirus: relative to many other companies, they seem well positioned to address the impacts both to their own business and to help clients adjust. For instance, Accenture does not have a headquarters. Top leaders are spread across the globe. They’ve operated this way for over three decades. So, they say, mobilizing to address this situation has been seamless. A significant portion of employees working from home including 60% of their huge number of employees in India and the Philippines. Some work cannot be done from home, in these cases, they reduced the density of people in their offices. To date, they have not experienced any material service interruptions.

 

Including some quotes from the earnings call….an interesting insight into Accenture’s positioning and into implications of the current situation for companies generally.

·         “we are deeply experienced in working virtually, and already have deployed at scale in the normal course in our business collaboration technologies and infrastructure for remote working. For example, we’re the largest user of teams by Microsoft in the world. And in the last few weeks, as we rapidly ramped more people working remotely from home, teams’ audio usage has almost doubled from our typical 16 million minutes per day to almost 30 million minutes per day. We are using our deep experience of working together virtually across Accenture and with our clients to help adapt how we work together from home.”

·         “Our clients are adjusting to the need to have remote working, which for many of our clients is very new, and we’re helping many of our clients make that adjustment. So for example, we have a client who asked us literally to go and we partner with Microsoft to do this, to go from zero people using teams, in five days, it’ll be — their entire 61,000 workforce. So in 5 days, 0 to 61,000.”

·         “if you look at the work that we’re doing with our clients, we’re working very closely to them on mission critical services… we do the settlement of services of trades with major banks. We do payroll services. We support many different healthcare services. We’re doing trust and safety services, keeping the Internet safe. So there is a big focus in this first phase on mission critical services, working together with our clients, being able to do that in some cases remote, in some cases continuing to go into the centers…. much of the work that we do for our clients is mission critical or critical to their agendas.”

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 


$ACN.US

[tag ACN]

[category equity research]

 

TJX Closing stores & withdrawing guidance

TJX just announced they are closing all stores and all e-commerce sites and distribution centers for 2 weeks, drawing down $1B on their credit facility, suspending share buybacks and “evaluating” their dividend. Excluding capitalized leases, they have no net debt. As of their Feb fiscal year end, they had $3.2B in cash and $2.2B in debt. The drawdown will bring their cash balance to $4B. A recent accounting change has required the capitalization of leases which adds another $7.8B in debt to their balance sheet. Basically the accounting change requires companies to take the PV of all future leases and add it to LT liabilities on their balance sheet. This has happened for all retailers, restaurants etc. For this fiscal year, TJX has ~$1.6B in lease commitments. As of February 1, 2020, they operated a total of 4,529 stores in nine countries, the US, Canada, the UK, Ireland, Germany, Poland, Austria, the Netherlands, and Australia, and 4 e-commerce sites.

 

 

FRAMINGHAM, Mass.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX), today announced several actions related to its response to the rapidly changing market uncertainty from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effective today the Company is closing all of its stores in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia for two weeks. In certain regions, including Germany, Poland, Austria, Ireland, and the Netherlands, and a number of U.S. and Canadian locations, the Company had previously closed stores based on several factors, including government or health department requirements. The Company is also closing its online businesses tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com, and sierra.com. Further, the Company is temporarily closing its distribution centers and offices, with Associates working remotely when they can. We know our Associates are very concerned for their health and financial well-being, and we plan to pay our store, distribution center and office Associates for two weeks during these closures.

To further strengthen its financial position and balance sheet, and maintain financial liquidity and flexibility, the Company is taking the following actions:

·         Drawing down $1 billion from its revolving credit facilities.

·         Suspending its share repurchase program.

·         Evaluating its dividend program.

·         Reviewing all operating expenses.

·         Reducing capital expenditures.

The Company also announced today that it is withdrawing its first quarter and full year Fiscal 2021 financial guidance given on its February 26, 2020 earnings conference call. The Company is not providing an updated outlook at this time.

As the COVID-19 pandemic is complex and evolving rapidly, the Company’s plans as outlined above may change.

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 


$TJX.US

[tag TJX]

[category equity research]

 

 

TJX Closing stores & withdrawing guidance

Just want to add on to this, the stock is up despite this. This news is not unexpected. I think as a result of the current environment many of the retailers that were already struggling, will not survive. By comparison, on the other side of this, TJX stands to gain share and have plentiful access to inventory. Moreover, TJX tends to perform well in recessions, with only one year of negative same store sales in over 40 years. I know of no other retailer with this record.

 

 

From: Sarah Kanwal
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:30 PM
To: CrestwoodAdvisors <crestwoodadvisors@crestwoodadvisors.com&gt;
Cc: ‘postinvestdigest@gmail.com’ <postinvestdigest@gmail.com&gt;
Subject: TJX Closing stores & withdrawing guidance

 

TJX just announced they are closing all stores and all e-commerce sites and distribution centers for 2 weeks, drawing down $1B on their credit facility, suspending share buybacks and “evaluating” their dividend. Excluding capitalized leases, they have no net debt. As of their Feb fiscal year end, they had $3.2B in cash and $2.2B in debt. The drawdown will bring their cash balance to $4B. A recent accounting change has required the capitalization of leases which adds another $7.8B in debt to their balance sheet. Basically the accounting change requires companies to take the PV of all future leases and add it to LT liabilities on their balance sheet. This has happened for all retailers, restaurants etc. For this fiscal year, TJX has ~$1.6B in lease commitments. As of February 1, 2020, they operated a total of 4,529 stores in nine countries, the US, Canada, the UK, Ireland, Germany, Poland, Austria, the Netherlands, and Australia, and 4 e-commerce sites.

 

 

FRAMINGHAM, Mass.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX), today announced several actions related to its response to the rapidly changing market uncertainty from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effective today the Company is closing all of its stores in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia for two weeks. In certain regions, including Germany, Poland, Austria, Ireland, and the Netherlands, and a number of U.S. and Canadian locations, the Company had previously closed stores based on several factors, including government or health department requirements. The Company is also closing its online businesses tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com, and sierra.com. Further, the Company is temporarily closing its distribution centers and offices, with Associates working remotely when they can. We know our Associates are very concerned for their health and financial well-being, and we plan to pay our store, distribution center and office Associates for two weeks during these closures.

To further strengthen its financial position and balance sheet, and maintain financial liquidity and flexibility, the Company is taking the following actions:

·         Drawing down $1 billion from its revolving credit facilities.

·         Suspending its share repurchase program.

·         Evaluating its dividend program.

·         Reviewing all operating expenses.

·         Reducing capital expenditures.

The Company also announced today that it is withdrawing its first quarter and full year Fiscal 2021 financial guidance given on its February 26, 2020 earnings conference call. The Company is not providing an updated outlook at this time.

As the COVID-19 pandemic is complex and evolving rapidly, the Company’s plans as outlined above may change.

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 


$TJX.US

[tag TJX]

[category equity research]

 

 

#researchtrades Selling HLT

 

·         I am recommending that we sell Hilton. This is ~2% position in focus equity.

·         Given the evolving environment, I think the risk of long-duration, extreme measures to contain the virus globally are rising.

·         As a result, while I feel Hilton has enough capital to endure a long global lockdown, and no meaningful debt maturities for several years, it does raise the risk of potentially tripping a covenant on their debt. I think this is remote and very low probability. However, given such a broad sell off, I think there are places we can redeploy the proceeds that have lower tail risk as the situation worsens globally.

·         To be clear, I am not seeing anyone sounding an alarm related to their debt. I’ve talked to mgmt. and they are not suggesting this, I haven’t seen any notes from the sell side or any signs in the bond markets that raises my level of concern here. While the spread on their debt has widened, it’s widened less so than issues of similar quality and maturity.

·         This move is out of an abundance of caution and is a name we may look to re-enter as we gain more clarity on the current situation.

·         For now, we are currently looking at potential new names to add as a replacement.

 

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 


$HLT.US

[tag HLT]

[category equity research]