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Zoetis 1Q2021 earnings summary

Key Takeaways:

 

 Share price: $167                    Target Price: $182  

Position size: 2.08%                TTM return: +38%

 

Overall Zoetis released another quarter beating expectations with high revenue growth (+21%) driven by both companion animal (+35% thanks to parasiticide and dermatology products) and livestock who appears to finally recover after two years of sub-par results (+9%, driven by International growth of +17%). China grew 75% while Brazil growth was +48%. Overall sales of dermatology products were $245M in the quarter, and should exceed $1B in 2021, making this portfolio a blockbuster sub-segment for Zoetis. Its expanding diagnostics sub-segment grew 47%. Zoetis has advanced its connectivity solutions in veterinary practices, and has received positive feedback on its cloud-based VetScan images platform. During its early launch. Its reference lab integration is advancing as well with good potential for global expansion. On the drug innovation front, its osteoarthritis treatment for dog (Librela) launched in Europe and is having good acceptance, while in the USA it is still pending FDA approval for a 2022 tentative launch date. Once fully launched, this product will be margin accretive for Zoetis as it is expected to sell at a premium.

Gross margins were slightly above consensus. The management team raised its 2021 guidance on the top and bottom line, although the raise was less than the quarter beat, as some of the growth is being reinvested into the business.

So while this was a good quarter, the stock is trading down today as investor were expecting a higher raise in earnings guidance. We continue to think Zoetis is well positioned to continue gaining market share and offer new therapies for companion animals that will lift sales over the coming years.

CEO quotes:

o    “it has been one year since the launch of our triple combination parasiticide Simparica Trio. It is exceeding expectations and it’s been well received by customers with a 90% plus penetration rate”

o    ” We believe the ongoing market shift to e-commerce is another boost for this category, helping to increase compliance and month on therapy and our direct to consumer campaigns for Simparica and Simparica Trio continue showing a solid return on investment in around the world.”

Guidance raised for 2021:

  • Revenue growth of +10.5% to +12% from prior +9% to +11% guide, driven by better than expected Q1 and confidence in portfolio diversification and innovation
  • Adjusted EPS guidance raised to $4.42-$4.51 from $4.36-$4.46

 In case you need it today, image of a little piglet:

Zoetis investment thesis:

·         ·         Attractive industry profile: mid-single-digit growth rate, little generic threat, cash payers, pet sub-sector is very fragmented

·         ·         ZTS is a leading diversified animal pharma company that continues to innovate to fulfill unmet animal needs

·         ·         ZTS is growing above the industry rate and has proven resilient throughout economic cycle

·         ·         Experienced management team has proven successful in increasing revenue and margins since the IPO in 2013

·         ·         Good capital allocation strategy: M&A and capex spending have lifted sales and improved profitability

 

$ZTS.US

[category earnings] [tag ZTS]

 

 

Julie S. Praline

Director, Equity Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0025

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

 

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

BKNG 1Q Results

Current Price: $2,284      Target price: $2,400

Position Size: 1.8%          TTM Performance: +64%

 

 

Key Takeaways:

  • Stronger-than-expected gross bookings, but missed on revenue and EBITDA.
  • Recovery uneven across geographies driven by the pace of re-opening. Results weighed down by slower recovery/continued lockdowns in Europe. Seeing encouraging booking trends in places benefiting from successful vaccine distribution programs e.g. Israel, the UK and the U.S.
  • Saw positive room night growth in the US in Q1 versus Q1 2019. It was their strongest performing major country. They continue to strengthen the booking.com brand in the US.

·       Weak environment strengthens their position w/ suppliers as they are a key source of demand. Demand mix shift away from business towards leisure benefits BKNG’s leisure focus.

 

Additional Highlights:

  • Room rights declined 54% versus Q1 2019, which was a 6% improvement versus decline reported in Q4. April room nights continued to show sequential improvement with a decline of 43% versus 2019 with room night declines over the last seven days April at about 38%.
  • Gross bookings declined 53% in Q1, less than the decline in reported room nights due to strong performance in their flights business and partially offset by a 1% decline in average daily rates for accommodations versus 2019 (excluding regional mix effects, ADRs were down approximately mid-single digits).
  • Airline Tickets booked in Q1 were up 49% versus 2019 driven by strong growth at Priceline and by flight processing just added on booking.com and Agoda both of which did not have it in Q1 2019.
  • Demand recovery…
    • Generally saw improving trends, but case counts are still rising in some parts of the world with corresponding increases in lock-downs and re-imposed travel restrictions that will continue to impact travel in the near-term.
    • US improved significantly during the quarter w/ positive room night growth year-on-year which is great given international business is down.
    • Europe was the least recovered region in terms of room nights booked in Q4 and it remained the least recovered region in Q1. While Europe did improve compared with Q4, trends softened towards the end of March driven by rising COVID case counts and new imposition on travel restrictions. With increased vaccinations, things improved in April versus March and Europe is now no longer the least recovered region.
    • Asia recovery retreated a bit in April w/ an increase in infections.
    • Pre-covid, their mix was about >50% Europe, ~20% Asia and ~30% US.
    • Their booking window remains shorter than it was in Q1 2019 as they continue to see a higher mix of near-term bookings.
  • Connected trip & alternative accommodations are long-term growth drivers – The long-term vision for them continues to be the “connected trip.” The idea is to be a platform for not just hotel, but a portal for all aspects of travel including flights, activities, restaurants etc. A key part of this is building up the “supply” (e.g. tour operators). The current environment could be a catalyst for supply as weaker travel trends spur suppliers to look to Booking as a necessary source of demand. They continue to invest behind this despite the current environment including their payment platform which enables payment to companies like tour operators through their platform. This is a multi-year endeavor to transition from their accommodation only focus in the past.  As these grow over time it will drive a mix shift that will add revenue and grow profit dollars, but at a lower margin than traditional accommodations. An offsetting factor to this could be increased direct book (especially via their app), lower customer acquisition costs and lower performance marketing. Alternative accommodations were 30% of the mix in 2020 and are skewed towards Europe, but they are focused on growing their US business particularly w/ building inventory w/ multi-property managers.
  • Will see an impact to profitability as travel recovers that is just a timing factor– with continued recovery in 2021, there will be more bookings made in 2021 that will check-in 2022 then there were bookings made in 2020 that checked-in 2021. This timing factor will have a negative impact on revenue as a percentage of gross bookings and drive some deleverage in their marketing expenses b/c they incur the majority of marketing expenses at the time of booking.
  • Guidance – No specific guidance other than they expect Q2 room night declines to be a few potential points better than the decline in April (which improved from March). And they expect Q2 gross bookings to decline slightly less than room nights driven by the same trends seen in Q1.

·       Stock is not expensive and expectations are reasonable. Trading at ~4.5% yield on 2022. Consensus is for revenue not to recover to 2019 baseline until 2023. Consistent w/ mgmt. commentary that it will be years and not quarters before the travel market returns to pre-COVID volumes.

 

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

$BKNG.US

[category earnings ]

[tag BKNG]

 

Xylem 1Q2021 earnings summary

Key takeaways:

 

Current Price: $117                   Price Target: $130 (NEW from $117)

Position Size: 2.87%                 1-year  Performance: +80%

 

Xylem reported its 1Q 2010 earnings yesterday, largely above consensus both on sales and EPS front. Organic growth of +8% reflects the recovery across end markets, as company guidance was looking for +1% to +3%. Organic orders are up 19% and backlog up 23%. Good productivity efforts drove 510bps EBITDA margin improvement, offset partially by 210bps of cost inflation. All in, EBITDA margin expanded by 480bps. Price increases were announced (similar to peers, facing inflation), and we should this come in Q3 and Q4.  On the balance sheet front, net debt/EBITDA is healthy at 1.6X. Regarding guidance, the management team raised its revenue growth prospects although the electronic chip shortage could pose some shipment delays and limited the upside in EBITDA margin upside potential. The US Utilities have shown resilient maintenance spending on wastewater/mission critical applications, and new projects are coming back online with bidding pipeline building back up.

Sustainability continues to remain in focus, with further executive compensation linked to sustainability performance and 2025 goals. We revised our price target to reflect faster recovery in end markets and margin upside potential.

 

CEO quote:

  • “Productivity gains this quarter is helping offset early impact of rising inflation”
  • “I think many of us worried that the cause of sustainability might suffer setbacks through the economic hardships of 2020. However, instead of a retreat, we’ve actually seen a broad and energetic global embrace of sustainability. As an enterprise over the last year, we’ve taken several meaningful steps toward our signature 2025 sustainability goals.”

 

Additional 1Q21 results:

Organic growth by end-markets:

  • Utilities: +3%
  • Industrial: +14%
  • Commercial: +5%
  • Residential: +31%

 

Organic growth by regions:

  • US: -1% but orders up high-teens
  • Emerging markets: +33% – China +90% on easy comps
  • Western Europe: +11%

 

2021 guidance:

  • Organic sales lifted from +3% to +5% to +5% to +7%
  • Adjusted operating margin raised from 11.5% to 12.5%  to 12% to 12.5% from cost benefits with favorable volume/price/mix, offset partially by rising inflation and growth investments
  • The order trends appears to be recovering, and backlog growth is significant (+16%)
  • End markets outlook:
    • Wastewater utilities (28% of revenue): modest growth expected, with healthy pipeline in US, robust bid activity in China and India (although India most likely to experience lumpiness due to current Covid situation)
    • Clean water utilities (27% of revenue): global chip shortage could pose some constraints. Recent contract wins should provide some growth in 2021, good momentum in test business. Utilities companies continue to show desire to increase technology exposure with smart water solutions and digital offerings.
    • Industrial (30% of revenue): light industrial activity rebound globally, dewatering business showing signs of growth due to ease of site access
    • Commercial (10% of revenue): new commercial building expected soft this year, recovery in new construction late 2021. In Europe, healthy levels of activity as their supply chains proved resilient vs. peers, eco-friendly products and smart drives
    • Residential (5% of revenue): work-from-home in US and Europe pushing demand, high secondary water supply demand in China

 

Xylem’s investment thesis is:

 

  • Xylem has strong sustainable secular growth drivers in a fragmented industry:
    • Access to clean water is a necessity
    • Population growth & urbanization
    • Aging infrastructure

 

  • More defensive sales base thanks to:
    • 50% of sales to utility sector
    • sticky client base due to high switching costs
    • high level of replacement parts demand
    • Long-term contracts with ½ of the revenue base recurring

 

  • Margin expansion overtime from productivity efforts

 

  • M&A strategy has increased their scope in the water cycle

 

  • Valuation is attractive today

 

XYL.US

Category: earnings

Tag: XYL

 

 

Julie S. Praline

Director, Equity Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0025

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

 

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

Hilton 1Q21 Results

Share Price: $122            Target Price: $150

Position Size: 2%              1 Yr. Return: +70%

 

 

Key takeaways:

  • Missed on revenue and EPS as current trends are tied to vaccine rollouts and changing travel restrictions and thus still highly uncertain. Owned hotels (higher op leverage) are performing worse due to their disproportionate exposure to Europe & later lockdowns, which negatively impacted earnings.
  • Recovery uneven, but progressing. US is seeing inflection – April bookings for the summer exceeding 2019 peak levels, by nearly 10%. Europe is emerging from lockdowns more slowly and China is back to 2019 levels.
  • Solid net unit growth and a stable pipeline – China development activity is particularly strong.
  • CEO Chris Nassetta said, “We do expect this momentum to continue. Vaccine distribution, coupled with relaxed travel restrictions, and increasing consumer confidence, should drive further RevPAR improvements in the coming months, and quarters. In fact, we are on pace to see record leisure demand in the US over the summer months.”

 

Highlights:

  • Quotes from the call…
    • “since we had our last call, the slope of the recovery’s been steeper than what we would have thought in all regards.”
    • “We expect continued corporate office re-openings to drive a meaningful pick up in business transient demand, towards the back, half of the year. Based on what we’ve seen in China and pockets of the US, once restrictions are lifted and offices reopen, business travel returns.”
    • “as kids in the fall, go back to school. Which at this point I think is very highly likely, you are going to see a step change into the third and fourth quarter in business transient.”
    • “there’s 3 million industry folks still out of work. I think by the time you get to September/October, I think the vast majority of those could easily be re-employed given what I think demand will be.”
  • Promising demand trends:
    • System-wide occupancy reached 55% by the end of the month, driven by strong leisure demand.
    • Leisure is strongest, but corporate and group are steadily improving correlated w/ re-opening.
    • In the US, leisure demand is already at 90% of 2019 levels and business is at ~50%. However, in states that were further along in their reopening process business transient revenue was roughly 75% of 2019 levels for the quarter. They think business transient occupancy will be ~70% of 2019 levels by Q4. Rate will be weaker. That puts full year RevPAR exiting 2021 at ~70% of 2019 levels.
    • Group bookings made in the first quarter for the back half of the year were roughly flat with 2019 booking activity. For 2022, next year, their group position is roughly 85% of peak 2019 levels, with rate increases versus 2019. And Group bookings were up in the mid-teens for 2023 versus 2019. Bigger meetings require greater lead time to plan and are benefiting 2022/23 booking trends.
    • China is running in the low 70s occupancy. Leisure and business transient demand, rebounded quickly as restrictions eased, with March occupancy in China exceeding 2019 levels (occupancy in China was at~70% pre-pandemic).
  • Stable unit growth underpins the story – unit growth was 5.8% YoY and the pipeline increased to a total of approximately ~400K rooms. That represents 40% room growth from their current installed base of rooms. More than half of their pipeline is located outside the US (mid-tier focus tied to growing global middle class) and more than half are under construction (helps underpin several yrs. of predictable growth). Tightening restrictions and lockdowns across Europe delayed openings in the region. They expect an uptick in development activity as countries continue to reopen. Maintained guidance of net units in the mid-single digit range for the next several years and continue to expect growth in the 4.5% to 5% range in 2021.
  • Continued strength in their market leading RevPAR index. RevPAR index is their RevPAR premium/discount relative to peers adjusted for chain scale. They are the market leaders – this is helpful because it’s what leads to pipeline growth (hotel operators want to associate w/ the brand that yields the best rates and occupancy) and is helpful in a macro downturn because it’s even more crucial for a developer to be associated with a market leading brand to get financing. i.e. they would likely take more pipeline share if lending standards tighten. The other countercyclical aspect of their pipeline growth is conversions (an existing hotel changes their banner to Hilton). I.e. Hampton Inn (35 year old brand) has a RevPAR index of 120.
  • Loyalty members hit 115m (+8% YoY) and account for >60% of system-wide occupancy. Loyalty members continues to grow and % penetration continues to improve – both of which bode well for LT RevPAR trends as they typically see a doubling of wallet share once a customer signs up for the loyalty, and share improves w/ status level.  They get 75-80% share of hotel wallet from Diamond Honors customers.
  • Shareholder returns should improve w/ recovery – dividends and buybacks are still halted but as the recovery progresses, they should return to historical levels – likely won’t resume until the beginning of next year. In 2019 they returned more than 8% of their market cap to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

 

If anyone is eager to book some travel, they have some nice new hotels opening…😊

 

https://lxrhotels3.hilton.com/lxr/mango-house-seychelles/

https://www.waldorfastoriamonarchbeach.com/

 

 

 

 

 

$HLT.US

[category earnings]

[tag HLT]

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

LISIX – Q1 2021 Commentary

Lazard International Strategic Equity Fund Commentary – Q1 2021

Thesis

LISIX is a bottom-up, growth-based fund that completes the core satellite strategy within global equity. The fund is unique in that it focuses on individual stocks rather than markets and looks for reasonably priced companies with strong growth potential. We like LISIX because of the managers’ expertise in various market caps, geographies, and sectors which helps keep the fund diversified while providing strong upside and downside capture over time.

 

[more]

 

Overview

In the first quarter of 2021, LISIX underperformed the benchmark (MSCI EFEA Index) by 69bps due to the continued rebound of industries hit hardest by COVID: Energy and Financials. Communication Services and Information Technology lagged compared to these rebounding sectors, as they did not take as much of a hit during COVID’s peak in 2020. The fund continues to prefer stocks that are relatively well valued – avoiding over-valued and cheap stocks which are seeing the most return in the most recent quarter. A bias towards “quality” acted as a headwind during the quarter.

 

Q1 2021 Summary

  • LISIX returned 2.79%, while the MSCI EAFE Index returned 3.48%
  • Positives
    • Volkswagen – predicting that the company will sell more EVs than Tesla
    • Bankinter SA – continued revenue and overall business growth
    • Suncor – recovery in oil prices and low breakeven prices
    • ABB – new management focusing on ROIC and value creation
  • Negatives
    • Nintendo – shift away from “stay-at-home” to more traditional cyclical stocks
    • Alstom – weak, but recovering margins
    • Engie – transition into renewable energy
    • Makita – fear of reversal for “stay-at-home” industries
    • Siemens Gamesa – seasonally a weak quarter for the wind-power company

 

 

 

 

 

Outlook

  • We continue to hold this fund and believe in our thesis due to the fund’s strong stock selection, ability to find well valued companies, and expertise in various market caps, geographies, and sectors
  • Management believes the broad international universe will continue to improve as COVID-19 continues to be controlled
    • Both International Developed and EM will outperform the U.S. markets due to relatively lower valuations and bottoming earnings estimates
  • Less opportunity in Japan, as the country held up better throughout the heart of the pandemic
  • Belief that by fall, many countries will be reopening in a significant way

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Category Mutual Fund Commentary]

 

Micah Weinstein

Research Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0032

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

HILIX – Q1 2021 Commentary

Hartford International Value Fund Commentary – Q1 2021

Thesis

Serving as a satellite holding, HILIX is a value style fund that takes advantage names that have underperformed recently and are cheaply priced. The team generates alpha by finding companies with strong fundamentals that are overlooked during times of low consensus expectations. We like that HILIX takes advantage of extremes and gains exposure to less efficient market caps by having more holdings and moderate active bets.

 

[more]

 

Overview

In the first quarter of 2021, HILIX outperformed the benchmark (MSCI EFEA Index) by 832bps due mainly to strong security selection in Financials, Industrials, and Information Technology. This was slightly offset by selection in Materials. An underweight to Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Healthcare contributed to returns while an underweight to Financials detracted. Stock selection within Developed Europe and Middle East ex-UK and Japan were strong contributors to overall performers as well.

 

Q1 2021 Summary

  • HILIX returned 11.80%, while the MSCI EAFE Index returned 3.48%
  • Top issuer contributors
    • Novartis – not owning
    • Unilever – not owning
  • Top issuer detractors
    • Volkswagen – not owning
    • Dongfeng Motor Group – general allocation

 

 

 

 

Outlook

  • We continue to hold this fund and believe in our thesis due to the fund’s value and bottom-up, fundamental approach
    • The fund saw heavy underperformance during most of 2020, but has since began to rally back in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 as the “value” style continues to rebound
  • High excess savings and household net worth, along with higher expected inflation and corporate profits are all catalysts to support value stocks
  • Seeing opportunity in defensive areas: Healthcare and Telecoms
  • Continue to have largest overweight to Energy, Industrials, and Communication Services and underweight to Consumer Staples and Utilities
    • Overweight to EM and underweight to Europe and Asia Pacific ex-Japan
  • Value has been underperforming for some time, yet historically it has proven to outperform through full market cycles

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Category Mutual Fund Commentary]

 

Micah Weinstein

Research Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0032

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

WHGSX – Q1 2021 Commentary

Westwood SmallCap Fund Commentary – Q1 2021

Thesis

WHGSX is our only active manager in the small cap U.S. equity markets and applies a quality and value tilt to their investment strategy, holding between 60 and 80 companies. By utilizing bottom-up fundamentals and focusing on companies with strong balance sheets, high ROIC, and consistently high FCF yield, the fund generates alpha especially during market downturns. We continue to hold WHGSX because of the team’s ability to find cheap valued stocks in the small cap space enabling them to generate strong returns over the long run.

 

[more]

 

Overview

In the first quarter of 2021, WHGSX underperformed the benchmark (S&P 600 Index) by 131bps largely due to overall allocation and selection in more cyclical areas of the market. Businesses with higher-quality fundamentals, which held through the worst of the pandemic much better, underperformed in the most recent quarter. Selecting weighting in Consumer Discretionary and Industrials were the largest detractors, while favorable stock selection in Financials and Utilities contributed to returns.

 

Q1 2021 Summary

  • WHGSX returned 16.93%, while the S&P 600 Index returned 18.24%
  • Financials – leading contributor
  • Utilities – strong stock selection
  • Consumer Discretionary & Industrials – leading detractors
    • Consumer Discretionary saw strong rebound in industries hit hardest by pandemic: department stores and specialty retail establishments
    • Industrials saw a cyclical recovery, especially business with large operating and financial leverage
  • Real Estate – detracted due to unfavorable stock selection
    • Hotels and retail properties saw a strong rebound

 

 

 

 

 

Optimistic Outlook

  • We continue to hold this fund and believe in our thesis due to the value and quality tilt strategy that has a bottom-up, fundamental focus around ROIC, FCF yields, balance sheet metrics, and companies trading at a discount
  • Companies with strong financial positions and solid fundamentals are well positioned to take advantage of the recovering economy and market
    • Corporate profits will be a key watch item
    • Higher taxes could be temporary headwind
  • The fund will continue to focus on quality companies that are trading at a relatively attractive valuation – strong return and cash generation

 

 

[Category Mutual Fund Commentary]

 

Micah Weinstein

Research Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0032

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

TIREX – Q1 2021 Commentary

TIAA-CREF Real Estate Fund Commentary – Q1 2021

Thesis

TIREX utilizes fundamental research to find properties in high barrier markets, with higher occupancy and rent growth. By focusing on quality companies and avoiding unnecessary risks, the fund obtains a strong track record that has outperformed the benchmark and REIT ETF over time. We continue to hold TIREX because of the team’s growth focus with asset concentrations in supply constrained markets. Lastly, TIREX was the lowest cost active manager screened, at 51bps.

 

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Overview

In the first quarter of 2021, TIREX underperformed the benchmark (FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index) by 49bps, driven by a few holdings that did not benefit as much from the U.S. economy reopening. Yet, the fund did outperform broad-market U.S. equity indexes due to strong gains in retail, lodging/resorts, and apartments. “Shelter-at-home” sectors such as industrials, timber, and data centers acted as headwinds during the quarter. Going forward, the fund is looking to allocate more to apartments and regional malls, while reducing exposure to data centers and industrial property types.

 

Q1 2021 Summary

  • TIREX returned 7.83%, while the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index returned 8.32%
  • Contributors
    • Simon Property Group Inc. – country’s largest regional mall REIT
    • SITE Centers Corp – shopping center REIT
    • Equity Residential – apartment REIT
  • Detractors
    • GDS Holdings Ltd – China-based data center
    • Megaport Ltd. – Australia-based network-software interconnection services company
    • Sun Communities, Inc. – housing REIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Optimistic Outlook

  • We continue to hold this fund and believe in our thesis due to the fund’s goal to obtain long-term alpha through capital appreciation and current income
  • By having a research-oriented investment process that focuses on cash flows and asset values we believe TIREX will continue to outperform its benchmark long-term
  • The managers are effective when it comes to understanding and preparing for changes to the REIT landscape and where long-term sustainable growth exists

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Category Mutual Fund Commentary]

 

 

 

Micah Weinstein

Research Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0032

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

AFVZX – Q1 2021 Commentary

Applied Finance Select Fund Commentary – Q1 2021

Thesis

AFVZX is our only active manager in the large cap U.S. equity markets and applies a quality and value tilt to their investment strategy, holding roughly 50 companies. By utilizing DCF models, bottom-up fundamentals, and holding sector weights that are equivalent to their benchmark (S&P 500 Index), the fund generates alpha over time purely through stock selection. We continue to hold AFVZX because of the team’s ability to compare stocks across all sectors which enables them to generate strong returns over the long run.

 

[more]

 

Overview

In the first quarter of 2021, AFVZX outperformed the benchmark (S&P 500 Index) by 602bps largely due to strong stock selection across 7 of the 11 sectors. Top contributors included Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Technology, and REITs. The fund’s consistent focus on “small and value” contributed to returns, while “large and growth” was out of favor. Communication Services and Healthcare underperformed by a 100bps.

 

Q1 2021 Summary

  • AFVZX returned 12.19%, while the S&P 500 Index returned 6.17%
  • No changes to the fund during the quarter – ALXN has agreed to acquire AZN in December 2021 and management plans to replace this name prior to the acquisition in Q3 2021
  • Top contributors
    • Consumer Discretionary – DRI and LKQ
    • Consumer Staples – WBA and TSN
    • Information Technology – HPQ, INTC, and KLAC
    • REIT – HST
  • Top detractors
    • Communication Services – VZ and DIS
    • Healthcare – PFE and MRK

 

 

 

 

Optimistic Outlook

  • We continue to hold this fund and believe in our thesis due to the fund’s ability to outperform the index over the long run through strong stock selection and maintaining a quality and value investment tilt
  • Value is seeing a strong rebound relatively to growth after is became “statistically” undervalued compared to growth
  • Vaccine rollouts and the $6T deficit financed spending will turbocharge economy in coming years, but may result in high inflation, asset bubbles, and possibly fiscal crisis
  • Increases in corporate and personal taxes may also create some hurdles due to an increase in difficulty of opening up a business and investors’ perception of a need for a higher rate of return
  • Believe the fund’s holdings will continue to navigate the market well and positioned to perform strongly as the economy continues to reopen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Category Mutual Fund Commentary]

 

 

Micah Weinstein

Research Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0032

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

WHGSX – Q1 2021 Commentary

Westwood SmallCap Fund Commentary – Q1 2021

Thesis

WHGSX is our only active manager in the small cap U.S. equity markets and applies a quality and value tilt to their investment strategy, holding between 60 and 80 companies. By utilizing bottom-up fundamentals and focusing on companies with strong balance sheets, high ROIC, and consistently high FCF yield, the fund generates alpha especially during market downturns. We continue to hold WHGSX because of the team’s ability to find cheap valued stocks in the small cap space enabling them to generate strong returns over the long run.

 

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Overview

In the first quarter of 2021, WHGSX underperformed the benchmark (S&P 600 Index) by 131bps largely due to overall allocation and selection in more cyclical areas of the market. Businesses with higher-quality fundamentals, which held through the worst of the pandemic much better, underperformed in the most recent quarter. Selecting weighting in Consumer Discretionary and Industrials were the largest detractors, while favorable stock selection in Financials and Utilities contributed to returns.

 

Q1 2021 Summary

  • WHGSX returned 16.93%, while the S&P 600 Index returned 18.24%
  • Financials – leading contributor
  • Utilities – strong stock selection
  • Consumer Discretionary & Industrials – leading detractors
    • Consumer Discretionary saw strong rebound in industries hit hardest by pandemic: department stores and specialty retail establishments
    • Industrials saw a cyclical recovery, especially business with large operating and financial leverage
  • Real Estate – detracted due to unfavorable stock selection
    • Hotels and retail properties saw a strong rebound

 

 

 

 

 

Optimistic Outlook

  • We continue to hold this fund and believe in our thesis due to the value and quality tilt strategy that has a bottom-up, fundamental focus around ROIC, FCF yields, balance sheet metrics, and companies trading at a discount
  • Companies with strong financial positions and solid fundamentals are well positioned to take advantage of the recovering economy and market
    • Corporate profits will be a key watch item
    • Higher taxes could be temporary headwind
  • The fund will continue to focus on quality companies that are trading at a relatively attractive valuation – strong return and cash generation

 

 

[Category Mutual Fund Commentary]

 

Micah Weinstein

Research Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0032

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com