Cisco reported a strong quarter beating on top and bottom line. Revenue is finally growing again. As they shift from a hardware focused company to a software focused company, one side of the business has been cannibalizing the other dragging down growth. But the higher growth, higher margin, recurring revenue software business, now 33% of revenue, bodes well for future profitability. They increased the dividend by 14% (>3% yield) and increased the buyback authorization from $6B to $31B. They expect to utilize this over the next 18-24 months, which means buying back 15% of their market cap. They had a one-time $11B tax hit in the quarter as they plan to repatriate $67B cash.
Key positives from the quarter:
- Revenue was up 3% to $11.9B, EPS was up 10% and FCF was also up 10%.
- Americas +6%, EMEA +6%, Asia 0%, Emerging Markets +1%
- Guidance better than expected – revenue +3-5%; EPS $0.65
- Commercial order growth jumped to 14% from 12% in FQ1 and 4% in FQ4’17. Driven by rapid Catalyst 9k adoption.
- Gross margins improved 60bps because of the mix shift toward services revenue.
- Tax rate guidance of 20%
- Service provider continues to be weak with orders down 5%
- Strong innovation pipeline
Cisco’s margins are expanding as their revenue model evolves:
- The hardware business isn’t growing, software is growing 12-15% and services are growing mid-single digits.
- Services and software carry higher margins than hardware and are less capital intensive.
- By 2020 they expect at least 50% of revenue from software.
- About 33% is recurring revenue currently.
Intent-based networking will be a growth driver:
- One of the biggest IT shifts since the invention of the router – transforms how networks function.
- “Intent-based networking systems monitor, identify, and react in real time to changing network conditions.” Helping firms grapple with the growing digitization of their business.
- Only Cisco delivers an end-to-end, intent-based networking strategy.
- Major product is “Catalyst 9K”
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- Fastest ramping product in the history of the company.
- Was the driver of the 14% commercial order growth.
- Will enhance gross margins.
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Valuation:
- FCF steadily outpaces net income, so the company is cheaper than it looks on a P/E multiple.
- They have over a 3% dividend yield which is easily covered by their FCF.
- FCF yield of over 6% is well above sector average and is supported by an increasingly stable recurring revenue business model.
- The company trades closer to a hardware multiple, but the multiple should expand as they keep evolving to a software, recurring revenue model. Hardware trades on a lower multiple because it is lower margin, more cyclical and more capital intensive.