Lockheed Martin 1Q20 earnings summary

Key takeaways:

 

·         Company is seeing little impact from COVID-19 on its business

·         2020 guidance mostly unchanged (top line reduced by <1%)

·         LMT continues to be best-in-class defense company with high cash generation and ROIC

 

Current Price: $373        Price Target: $469  

Position Size: 4.35%      1-year Performance: +22%

 

Lockheed released its 1Q20 earnings results this morning, with organic sales +9%, segment operating margins -100bps, and EPS +1.4%. The business has been insulated from the COVID-19 crisis in Q1, although the rest of the year should see some impact such as supply chain issues due to distancing at facilities, supplier tier hierarchy disruptions and some shipping constraints. While the F-35 contributed to most of the quarterly growth in Aeronautics (contributed 12 points of the 14% segment growth), some delays in deliveries in Q2 and beyond is possible. Cash from operations was up 40% y/y. Lockheed’s current backlog ($144B, up 8% y/y) supports near-term growth.

 

2020 sales guidance was decreased slightly by ~1% due to reduced production and supply chain delays highlighted above, but profitability, EPS and cash from operations were maintained. With interest rates lower, pension expenses will be a greater headwind to profitability than initially guided earlier this year (~30bps).

 

Regarding LMT’s quality, its best in class ROIC still holds true, with a lower P/E than peers:

 

 

 

 

LMT Thesis:

·         Lockheed Martin is a primary beneficiary from the replacement cycle for aging military aircraft and ships

·         Excellent management team focused on returning capital to shareholders

·         Strong cash flow and financial position

    

[category earnings] [tag LMT] $LMT.US

 

 

 

Julie S. Praline

Director, Equity Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0025

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

 

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

Update on Apple

Yesterday Apple announced a new budget phone, the iPhone SE (second generation) starting at $399. This phone completely replaces the iPhone 8, and has the latest A13 Bionic similar to the iPhone 11 which means you get all the computational power of the flagship smartphone at about half the price, but it’s smaller at 4.7″ vs 6.1″…and has fingerprint sensor instead of Face ID…full spec comparison below for anyone that’s interested. This phone expands their addressable market beyond high-end phones, where Apple dominates…low-end and mid-tier phones make up a bigger share of the market.  The mid-priced segment ($250-$500) represented 20% of total global sales and 19% of shipments in 2019, according to IDC. Apple has about 14% share globally and close to 50% share domestically. They dominate share of high-end phones and the US is the largest high-end phone market with China being the next largest.

 

 

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

 

 

 

AAPL.US

[tag AAPL]

[category equity research]

 

 

Buying HD to 2% in Focus Equity #researchtrades

Good Morning – We are buying Home Depot to 2% in Focus Equity using proceeds from IVV.

 

Investment Thesis:

  1. Home Depot has a durable moat driven by scale, niche focus, and low-cost provider status with best-in-class supply chain and technology infrastructure.
  2. Underlying housing fundamentals should be supportive of long-term home improvement spending trends.

3.       Home Improvement online penetration is low and Home Depot has refined an omni-channel approach that is efficient and specialized, giving them an edge and insulating them from pure e-commerce encroachment.

  1. Growth opportunity in large and fragmented addressable market especially in the professional category. They are investing to enhance their capital-efficient, low-cost platform to go after incremental market share opportunities.
  2. Strong balance sheet and capital efficient model leads to solid FCF generation and high ROIC. GDP plus growth with modest operating leverage combined with share buybacks and growing dividend leads to strong long-term value creation.

 

 

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

JNJ Q1 2020 earnings summary

Key takeaways:

 

·         Guidance for the year lowered (note that it was not withdrawn!) due to the COVID-19 impact on its medical devices business (as expected):

o   Operational sales growth of -3.0% to +0.5% (down from +5.0-6.0%)

o   EPS of $7.50-$7.90 (vs prior $8.95-$9.10).

 

·         The 6.3% dividend increase is welcomed as we see many companies suspending theirs

 

·         Quarterly sales upside was driven by:

o   stronger-than expected pharma results

o   High over-the-counter drugs sales, as consumers stocked up on cold & flu medicine, and competitive supply disruptions

 

Overall JNJ had a good quarter, showing its true defensive qualities in a volatile, uncertain environment.  

 

Segment details:

 

Pharma sales: +10.2% organic and broad-based outperformance (Stelara, Darzalex, Imbruvica, Remicade). We believe drug sales will remain steady given patients’ high need and accessibility to pharmacies. The possible exception is slower new patient starts (less doctors/hospitals visits for non-COVID diseases). J&J is still working on developing a coronavirus vaccine, likely ready by early 2021. But company profitability will not move higher from this given the desire to offer the vaccine on a nonprofit basis.

 

Medical devices -4.8% organic growth, as procedures are being delayed. We think a rebound in late 2020 is possible as people catch up on necessary procedures

 

Consumer +11% organic growth almost entirely driven by OTC with strength due to COVID-19 (stocking up and treating symptoms)

 

 

Thesis on JNJ:

  • High quality company with consistent 20% ROE, attractive FCF yield,
  • Investments in the pipeline and moderating patent expirations create a profile for accelerated revenue and earnings growth
  • Growth opportunity: Medical Devices and Consumer offer sustainable growth and potential for expansion internationally
  • Strong balance sheet that offers opportunities for M&A.

 

 

 

[category Equity Earnings]

[tag JNJ]

$JNJ.US

 

 

Julie S. Praline

Director, Equity Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0025

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

 

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

Constellation Brands (STZ) business update

Yesterday Constellation Brands announced a partial shut-down of its beer production plant in Mexico, a less drastic move than peers that have completely shut down their plants in the region. STZ is complying with the government’s order to shut down non-essential activities, but wishes to safeguards its environment and avoid irreversible damages to its operations. Ahead of the shut-down the company had accelerated its production of high-volume SKUs. On the bright side, STZ has nearly 70 days of finished goods on hand with 80% already on the US soil. Per the management team, this is enough to avoid near-term service disruption. As for the expansion plans derailment (recent vote by locals to stop the plant construction), STZ continues to have a dialogue with the Mexican government regarding its Mexicali plant and finding a satisfying solution. We believe STZ should be able to recover some of the money lost in the construction of the plant, as the Mexican government would not want to send the wrong message to other foreign companies about future projects in the country.

 

Regarding the latest quarter’s results, STZ performed better than expectations, with beer sales +8.9% (led by Modelo and Corona). Modelo Especial is now the #4 beer brand in the US. The introduction of their newest innovation (hard seltzer) is going well. There is no current guidance for FY21 as the macro environment continues to evolve with the COVID-19 lock-downs. But sales for at-home consumption are high (+24% in the 4 weeks ended 03/22).

 

We remain positive on the long-term story of this company.

 

Investment Thesis:

·         Adding STZ helps position our portfolio to be more defensive at this stage of the economic cycle

·         STZ is down ~20% YTD, giving us a good entry point

·         STZ continues to have HSD top line growth and high margins that should incrementally improve going forward

·         STZ comes out of a heavy capex investment cycle to support its growth: FCF margins are set to inflect thanks to lower capex

 

[tag STZ] [category earnings]

$STZ.US

 

Julie S. Praline

Director, Equity Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0025

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

 

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

Alphabet’s Delivery by Drone Surge to Stay-at-Home Customers

Alphabet’s Wing unit is seeing a dramatic increase in the number of customers using its drone delivery service in rural Virginia during the Covid-19 pandemic. Wing, began routine deliveries under a test program approved by the federal government last October, and has added new vendors and expanded items customers can order to better serve people during the epidemic. Deliveries have more than doubled in Virginia. In addition to partnerships with FedEx and Walgreens, Wing recently began deliveries from places like bakeries and a coffee shops. While the payload of Wing’s autonomous drones is limited, orders are fulfilled within minutes. Wing seems to be well ahead of everyone else in drone delivery. Interesting article below from January, but here’s an excerpt…

 

more than six years after Bezos showed off the concept during an episode of 60 Minutes, Amazon deliveries remain frustratingly grounded. Wing, meanwhile, is surging forward — or, rather, upward. With over 5,000 deliveries direct to customers, it’s delivering on its promises, and then some. So long as you live in one of several select locations, that is.

 

“We’ve done over 80,000 flights with our current iteration of drone,” Dennett continued. “We’ve done that across three continents, with operations in Australia, Finland, and the U.S.”

 

Wing is currently operating in Australia’s cities of Canberra and Logan; Helsinki in Finland; and, in the United States, in the 21,000-person town of Christiansburg, Virginia. By partnering with assorted other businesses, it’s carried out proof-of-concept deliveries for everything from donuts and artisanal cheeses to Walgreens groceries and FedEx packages.

 

The most exciting development of all, however, is one that, on paper, sounds like little more than fine print: Wing has received an Expanded Air Carrier Certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). “We’re the first drone company in the United States to be a certified air carrier,” Dennett explained. “That means that we’re able to take money in return for providing our services because we’ve demonstrated such a level of safety.”

 

 

When it comes to delivery drones, Google’s Wing is miles above the competition

By Luke Dormehl

Digital Trends

January 27, 2020

 

Google famously laid out its mission as organizing “the world’s information [to] make it universally accessible and useful.” The search giant’s algorithms kneaded the web’s doughy data and metadata until it no longer resembled the lumpy experience of using the internet in the bad old days of Yahoo and Ask Jeeves, but rather a new streamlined, smoother surfing experience built for maximum effectiveness. Today hosting 5.6 billion searches per day, Google has been overwhelmingly successful at its job.

 

Now Alphabet, the parent company to which Google is but one part, wants to do the same thing with drone deliveries. But in a real-world of, well, brick and mortar buildings, weather systems, and FAA regulations, can its drone delivery subsidiary Wing hope to be as transformative as Google was in the world of search?

 

In short, can it succeed at making drone deliveries both universally accessible and useful?

 

A drone delivery system that works

Unlike most Google stories, Wing begins with a failure parable. Kind of. In 2012, the team behind Wing (it grew out of X Development, Alphabet’s “seriously-we-can-do-that-now?” moonshot initiative) showed off their initial prototype vertical landing and takeoff vehicle. This was capable not only of flying from one location to another, but also of hovering and winching packages up and down from the ground using a retractable tether. Wing immediately aimed for the most headline-grabbing, life-altering use-case possible: delivering defibrillators to people having heart attacks. As Apple is currently finding with the heart-rate tracking feature on the Apple Watch, few technology demonstrations generate more positive headlines than ones that involve saving lives. But it wasn’t to be.

 

“In the process of [exploring this idea] we realized that the drone technology wasn’t yet far enough along to be used as a reliable deliverer for that kind of urgent use-case,” Alexa Dennett, Head of Marketing and Communications for Wing’s Regions, told Digital Trends. “We spent the next seven-plus years, through today, trying to build an energy efficient, fast, reliable, and safe drone delivery system [that works].”

 

Here in 2020, companies promising drone deliveries are a whole lot like sex in high school. Everyone says they’re doing it, but hardly anyone actually is. Readers will be familiar with proclamations like Jeff Bezos’ announcement of Amazon Prime Air, the one-click dream of achieving autonomous drone deliveries to Amazon customers within 30 minutes of ordering. But more than six years after Bezos showed off the concept during an episode of 60 Minutes, Amazon deliveries remain frustratingly grounded. Wing, meanwhile, is surging forward — or, rather, upward. With over 5,000 deliveries direct to customers, it’s delivering on its promises, and then some. So long as you live in one of several select locations, that is.

 

“We’ve done over 80,000 flights with our current iteration of drone,” Dennett continued. “We’ve done that across three continents, with operations in Australia, Finland, and the U.S.”

 

Wing is currently operating in Australia’s cities of Canberra and Logan; Helsinki in Finland; and, in the United States, in the 21,000-person town of Christiansburg, Virginia. By partnering with assorted other businesses, it’s carried out proof-of-concept deliveries for everything from donuts and artisanal cheeses to Walgreens groceries and FedEx packages.

 

The most exciting development of all, however, is one that, on paper, sounds like little more than fine print: Wing has received an Expanded Air Carrier Certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). “We’re the first drone company in the United States to be a certified air carrier,” Dennett explained. “That means that we’re able to take money in return for providing our services because we’ve demonstrated such a level of safety.”

 

Bringing it to the masses

 

Alongside the ability to fly legally beyond the drone operator’s line of sight, this suddenly makes autonomous drone deliveries seem a lot more viable. This doesn’t just benefit Wing, either. It also makes the technology available to a whole lot more customers; ones that don’t necessarily have the resources of a Silicon Valley tech giant to consider implementing their own drone delivery systems.

 

“What I see as the most unique and differentiating thing about our drone is that really what we’re trying to do is empower everyone to access drone delivery,” Dennett said. “What I mean by that is that we’re building a system that allows drones to pick up and deliver to anywhere. The awesome thing is that, let’s say you’re a local coffee store, you could potentially work with Wing to have your coffee delivered to customers who would normally not walk past your store.”

 

From the perspective of a Wing partner, the idea is theoretically straightforward. You partner with the company, a bit like an independent developer hitching its wagon to Apple’s App Store star. Customers then get to order your products, you pack up the boxes when an order comes in, head outside to wait for Wing’s drone to whisk off your products, and Wing takes care of the rest. For a fee, of course.

 

“When that button is pushed [by a customer], our merchants are told ‘put [the item] in a box,’” Dennett said. “Our drone is then given instructions to take off. The route is planned by our unmanned traffic management system to be the safest, most efficient route. The package is loaded on by the merchant, and the drone flies completely autonomously to the person who has ordered it. The drone then hovers at about seven meters above the ground. It lowers a string, unhooks the package, winds up the string, and flies away to its charge pad to get ready for its next order.”

 

As simple as that, right? “[X Development]’s mission is to basically create businesses that will have an impact on hundreds of millions of people,” Dennett explained. “But will also, as a corollary, have the potential to generate large returns. From Wing’s perspective, we believe that we fall into that bucket.”

 

Delivering the undeliverable

The smart play — and the reason why drone deliveries are so exciting for companies — is because it makes it possible to deliver things that have never been delivered. For years, companies have delivered large items to customers. A new fridge or couch is a big-ticket item that’s impractical to transport on your own, and probably isn’t needed right this instant. Since then, the bar for the kind of things we’ll order for delivery has lowered as the speed of transportation has increased. Six weeks’ wait for a couch is acceptable. Six weeks’ wait for your fresh groceries is less so. One or two days for a book from Amazon is probably easier than driving downtown, parking, and going to a bookstore. One or two days’ wait for a cup of coffee is wildly impractical.

 

 

“In Australia, we’ve got a coffee provider called Kickstart Expresso,” said Dennett. “We’ve got an ice cream company called Pure Gelato. Both of those industries are, historically… you’re not going to deliver ice cream by a car, right? Because it’s melted by the time it’s delivered. And you’re not going to deliver an espresso-based coffee by car because it’s going to be lukewarm by the time it reaches the customer. But thanks to Wing, people can get deliveries to their door in a handful of minutes. That means ice cream that’s still frozen on a hot day when it’s delivered to your yard. Same with coffee, which is still piping hot. For these kind of businesses, drones are facilitating a whole new type of delivery that’s a new way of serving their customers.”

 

To put it another way, Wing — and drone delivery companies like it — hope to make deliverable whole new categories of goods that wouldn’t previously have been. Dennett would not share the exact price point at which it makes sense for a company to offer drone delivery (does ice cream by drone make sense or does it smack of dot-com bubble insanity?). However, she is confident that Wing’s business model is built with scalability in mind.

 

“You don’t need to have a delivery driver who then gets stuck in traffic,” she said. “It’s a point-to-point system flying in the sky where there is no traffic. We’re very confident that it will be significantly more cost effective for businesses to use this delivery service.”

 

Where we’re going…

There are challenges, of course. As noted, plenty of other companies are jumping into the drone delivery space. There are also ground-based delivery services like Starship Technologies, which offer sidewalk-based delivery bots that aim to achieve much the same thing.

 

Elsewhere, questions remain about things like the level of noise pollution drone deliveries will create. During Wing’s operations in Canberra, one complaint described the noise of its delivery drones as being like “a chain saw gone ballistic.” (Dennett said that Wing has made changes to its propellor and blade design, which has resulted in a “perceptible halving of the sound.”) Then there’s all the regulatory bodies, which will need to be convinced that drones are safe and efficient before they are given unanimous approval to operate everywhere.

 

But Wing, and others like it, have one big ace in the hole: our current method of transportation is, frankly, kind of broken. “There [has] to be a better way to transport things,” Dennett said. “Roads are incredibly congested. It seems absurd that you carry a two-pound package in a 2,000 pound car, with the carbon emissions associated with that kind of transportation.”

 

Drones, with their cavalier disregard for anything as mundane as ordinary streets, offer one sci-fi-sounding solution. As Dr. Emmett Brown tells Marty McFly at the end of Back to the Future, “Roads? Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.”

 

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

 

 

 

GOOGL.US

[tag GOOGL]

[category equity research]

 

 

Disney announced 50million subscribers

Disney just announced they have 50 million Disney+ subscribers. In Q1 they reported 26.5m subs vs consensus ~20m, which had increased to 28.6m subs as of the date of the earnings call in mid-Feb. They are tracking way ahead of expectations….the company projected 60 million to 90 million Disney+ subscribers by 2024 w/ 20-30m in the US and 40-60m international. In the past two weeks, Disney+ rolled out in 8 Western European counties including the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria, and Switzerland. Additionally, Disney+ became available last week in India, where it is offered in conjunction with the existing Hotstar service, and already accounts for approximately 8 million of Disney+’s 50 million paid subscribers. The service is expanding throughout Western Europe and into Japan and all of Latin America later this year.

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

DIS.US

[tag DIS]

[category equity research]

 

Update on BKNG

Booking filed an 8K this morning giving some updates on their business. Overall, no reason for additional concern – I think this is consistent with expectations and the stock is up 2% this morning. They indicated room night reservations (excluding the impact of cancelations) in recent days have decreased by over 85% as compared to the comparable period in 2019. This is consistent with reports by hotel operators of occupancy in the single digits. They also said they expect Q2 ending June 30 to be materially worse than Q1 given the timing of the virus outbreak. Booking also announced a debt offering and some changes to their debt covenants which should prevent them from potentially tripping a covenant. Specifically, they replaced a leverage ratio covenant with a liquidity covenant which requires them to have a certain amount of cash on hand. Additionally, they gave some insight into their liquidity situation. Basically they said prior to their current debt offering and without accessing their revolving credit facility ($2B) they believe if their current weakened business volumes persist indefinitely, their current liquidity will be sufficient through at least the end of 2021. If the situation worsens,  current liquidity will be sufficient at least until the second half of 2021. To put that in perspective, their business is very Europe focused and Europe is in lockdown, but cases in Spain and Italy seem to be levelling off. So a situation worse than now through mid-2021 seems unlikely. Moreover, this liquidity outlook does not incorporate their current debt offering or their $2B revolver that they can access. On March 24, 2020, Moody’s affirmed their A3 senior unsecured debt rating (this is in the middle of the investment grade credit ranking), but they did change the outlook to negative from stable.

 

 

Sarah Kanwal

Equity Analyst, Director

 

Direct: 617.226.0022

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square, Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

 

BKNG.US

[tag BKNG]

[category equity research]

 

 

#researchtrade Buying Xylem (XYL)

Good morning,

 

We are buying Xylem (ticker XYL) with a 2% position using cash on hand (IVV). Please see presentation attached (not client approved). We will send out the one pager once it is ready.

 

Xylem’s investment thesis is:

 

*         Xylem has strong sustainable secular growth drivers in a fragmented industry:

*         Access to clean water is a necessity

*         Population growth & urbanization

*         Aging infrastructure

 

*         More defensive sales base thanks to:

*         50% of sales to utility sector

*         sticky client base due to high switching costs

*         high level of replacement parts demand

*         Long-term contracts with ½ of the revenue base recurring

 

*         Margin expansion overtime from productivity efforts

 

*         M&A strategy has increased their scope in the water cycle

*         Valuation is attractive today

 

 

Thanks,

Julie

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Julie S. Praline

Director, Equity Analyst

 

Direct: 617.226.0025

Fax: 617.523.8118

 

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

 

www.crestwoodadvisors.com