RMD 2Q19 results summary

Key Takeaways:

Current price: $117 (pre-market) Price target: $109

Position size: 3% 1-year performance: +15%

Resmed released its 2Q19 earnings last night. The company missed on sales by 3% vs. consensus mostly in its Rest-of-World devices segment. They beat on the EPS line helped by better margins (+90bps GM expansion due to increasing production in Singapore and product mix) and taxes. We think devices sales will soften a bit, phasing out of the #2 and #4 markets (Japan & France) reimbursement changes that boosted their sales last quarter. However their core US business performance (masks and flow generators) is still strong with sales growth +9% y/y and EBIT +15%, taking shares from competitors. Their SaaS investment through the Brightree acquisition in early 2016 is being questioned this quarter as sales are slowing down. Due to the end customers in home/durable equipment consolidating, there is currently some pricing pressure in this SaaS business category. If this trend continues, we think Resmed could be forced to recognize goodwill impairment on this acquisition. We had highlighted last quarter that the shares appeared fully valued, so we are not surprised by today’s stock reaction following a sales miss. However the long-term thesis is still intact, and we believe the stock will recover over time. Continue reading “RMD 2Q19 results summary”

JNJ down today on baby talc powder Reuters article

Reuters had an article today saying JNJ knew about the asbestos in its baby talc powder for decades and did not alert authorities.

This issue is not new (JNJ has faced lawsuits for years, 5 appeals are being done by JNJ) so it is surprising to see such a big price move again on this topic (last one was in February).

JNJ is defending itself against this article citing plaintiffs’ attorneys are distorting historical documents and creating confusion on purpose for personal financial gains…

FYI the US FDA study found no asbestos fibers in any of the samples containing talc that were tested.

Bloomberg sees a $10-20B settlement risk for JNJ (sales are currently $81B, net income $22B, FCF $21B) so it is not as negligible as some other sell-side analysts are assuming (for example Wells Fargo sees a $1.5B risk)

[tag JNJ]

Julie S. Praline

Director, Equity Analyst

Direct: 617.226.0025

Fax: 617.523.8118

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

Why remain invested in the energy sector?

Please find below some talking points regarding our exposure to the oil sector:

Why is the energy sector down since the October’s peak oil price?

2019 forecast shows growing inventory levels (lead in part by the US shale production that increased much faster than anticipated)

A reminder though that 80% of the global supply is from international countries

OPEC sees a slowing global economy, especially from emerging markets, reducing demand for oil

This leads to a return of supply/demand imbalance and thus a lower oil price

President Trump is rooting for lower oil prices, advising Saudi Arabia to not cut production at the coming OPEC meeting (Dec 6th). OPEC countries seem to be in favor of a cut. Continue reading “Why remain invested in the energy sector?”

Union Pacific (UNP) efficiency plans announcement

This week, UNP announced their intention to implement the Precision Scheduled Railroading (PSR) strategy, starting October 1st. The stock reacted positively on the news, however we have some reservations that this strategy will drastically change UNP like it did for other rail companies in the past (CSX being the latest example).

Continue reading “Union Pacific (UNP) efficiency plans announcement”

J&J Pharma business quick overview

This week J&J held their Pharma business investor call, and the below data points are highlighting why J&J holds a superior pharmaceutical portfolio:

· Over 350 R&D programs, with $8.4B invested in 2017

· 14 new products approved since 2011, industry leader in brands over $1B in sales

· 100% of its operational growth comes from volume (not price increase)

· 10 new filings and/or launches anticipated between 2017-2021, each expecting >$1B in sales

[tag JNJ]

$JNJ.US

Julie S. Praline

Director, Equity Analyst

Direct: 617.226.0025

Fax: 617.523.8118

Crestwood Advisors

One Liberty Square

Suite 500

Boston, MA 02109

www.crestwoodadvisors.com